Casualty graphs

Upated 07 Feb 2013

Updated 29 Jun 12 – added GB 1972 to 2011 casualty graph All graphs will be updated to 2011 shortly

Updated 22 Feb 12

Road casualty data is available from the DfT, for the most part in the form of annual reports of national and police area figures – see http://www2.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/accidents/casualtiesmr/

Note that the Main Results data is normally published each year at the end of June the following year. For that reason the graphs currently in place end at 2010 but will be updated over coming months, as and when time permits, to include 2011. The more detailed results are normally published the following September, occasionally with minor corrections but also with more detail and analysis.

Here I make that same DfT data available in the form of many graphs by calendar year that allow a better understanding of national and local trends, and in particular the appalling adverse change of trend in fatalities from the early 1990s in the speed camera era. There is an international comparison for 1995 to 2o05 showing that fatality reductions were amongst the worst in the world.

One of the many serious failures of official analysis for decades has been asssessing changes in casualties without adjusting for rising traffic volume. Here the most important graphs show data not only in simple numerical terms but also also relative to traffic volume – the more meaningful indication of risk from the point of view of road users.

Another failure has been again to assess figures in simple numerical terms rather that in percentage terms, which, given the massive increase in traffic and substantial falls in casualties since 1950 can be very misleading. Hence the more important graphs are also shown here in logarithmic form, in which a consistent % fall year on year appears as a straight falling straight line.

Other graphs show the data both adjusted for traffic volume and in logarithmic form – perhaps the most significant being the 1950 to date logarithmic graph of fatalities per 10bn vehicle km – showing a remarkably steady reduction by 7% pa from 1950 to the early 1990s followed by a sudden change to less than 3% pa from then until 2007.

These graphs have all been generated using Advanced Grapher (available at modest cost from www.alentum.com/agrapher) and then converted into Word and then here in .pdf format for maximum accessability. All the data can be cross-checked against the original DfT data, and all graphs are also available as Advance Grapher (.agr) files on request to allow further analysis. These .agr files include text files of data which can be extracted and analysed in other ways.

The Word files of national graphs are labelled “GB” (England, Wales and Scotland) and the years covered and parameters included. Note that the graphs themselves are titled “UK” – this will be corrected as each is updated.

Almost all the police area graphs start in 1989, the earliest year for which I could find the data. Since then data back to 1985 has been made available via the National Data Archive. While I do not intend to add that earlier period to all these police area graphs I could do so for particular areas on request.

I do have other more specialised graphs not included here, such as comparisons of individual police areas with other areas or nation-wide, and can in any case easily generate new versions.

These  graphs include the data for the 8 area trial of the hypothecation scheme, showing clearly that the benefits claimed were bogus.

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